The State of New Hampshire aims to reduce its GHG emissions by 20 percent from 1990 levels by 2025 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 (DES 2009:24-25). Almost all scientific sources recommend a reduction of 80 percent by 2050, which is the amount of GHG reduction deemed necessary by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to keep temperatures from exceeding a 2-degree °C increase above pre-industrial levels. The SAU 70 CAP aims to align with these recommendations.

Because SAU 70’s 1990 GHG emission levels were not estimated, proportional targets for this CAP were calculated based on statewide changes in GHG emissions over time since 1990. To determine the proportional reductions needed from 2023 levels that would be equivalent to the State’s targeted reductions from 1990 levels, the State’s GHG inventories for 1990 and 2023 were compared. According to the inventories available in the New Hampshire CAP and Priority Climate Action Plan, statewide emissions were approximately 15.8 million MTCO₂e in 1990 and 15.2 million MTCO₂e in 2021 (DES 2009). Based on these statewide changes in emissions from 1990 to 2021, and in consideration of established statewide reduction targets for 2025 and 2050, applying proportional reductions to SAU 70’s 2022-2023 emissions levels would mean reductions of at least 16 percent by 2030 and 75 percent by 2050.

The combination of measures in the SAU 70 CAP are designed to achieve the 2030 goal and make substantial progress towards the longer-term 2050 goal. Table 3 shows SAU 70’s GHG reduction targets for 2030 and 2050, which require a 16 and 75 percent reduction, respectively, from the baseline 2022-2023 school year conditions. This level of reduction corresponds to an annual emissions limit of 2,592 MTCO₂e in 2030 and 776 MTCO₂e in 2050. This is the maximum amount of annual GHG emissions allowable while achieving the reduction targets. Figure 7 shows the trajectory of SAU 70’s GHG emissions without additional action in comparison to the GHG reduction targets established.

Figure 7.         SAU 70 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets